Baynetna: Understanding today to build the Lebanon of tomorrow together. Since 2019, we, the Lebanese youth, have been living at the exhausting pace of crises and economic contractions. This is a reality we know all too well. Yet, amidst this bleak picture, international financial institutions like Moody’s and the World Bank are beginning to speak of a more optimistic outlook. They point to 2026 as the year of a possible—albeit slight—rebound in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). For our generation, often highly educated but eager for concrete opportunities, the question is stark: will this distant macroeconomic recovery translate into real jobs? This article is for you. We will analyze the figures, compare these forecasts with the harsh realities on the ground, and offer you clear solutions.
News from Lebanon: The (fragile) hope for a rebound in 2026
While modest GDP growth forecasts for Lebanon do mark a shift in momentum after years of freefall. These figures suggest that the worst is over and that a slow stabilization process, or even very slight growth, could begin. However, this remains contingent on maintaining political and regional stability. In concrete terms, what does this mean? The economy is emerging from its downward spiral.
GDP stops falling
After an estimated contraction of -1.5% in 2024 and -0.5% in 2025, 2026 could see a return to growth, projected at +0.8%. This marks the end of the recession, but growth remains minimal.
Inflation is slowing down
The pace of price increases is slowing. Inflation (CPI) is expected to fall from around 75% in 2024 and 50% in 2025 to a deceleration of around 35.1% in 2026. This is an improvement compared to the 221% of 2023, but this rate, even reduced, means that the erosion of purchasing power remains a difficult daily reality.
Exchange rate stability
A potential stabilization of the LBP/USD exchange rate is anticipated post-reforms. This implies a reduction in sharp fluctuations, which is crucial for business planning and, above all, for household confidence. This “recovery” is primarily a statistical adjustment, largely driven by the dollarization of the economy and the strength of remittances from the diaspora (these funds representing a vital pillar of the economy). Growth below 1% is structurally insufficient to absorb massive unemployment, particularly among young people.
Macroeconomics does not solve the employment crisis in Lebanon
Positive macroeconomic indicators (GDP) may reassure investors, but they are not reflected in the daily lives of Lebanese citizens. The Lebanese labor market is in deep crisis, and youth employment is the first victim. With a national unemployment rate hovering around 30-35% and peaking at over 50% among 15-24 year olds, Lebanon has one of the highest rates in the world. This employment catastrophe is caused by very specific structural problems.
The structural skills mismatch for young people in Lebanon
Lebanon has one of the highest rates of higher education graduates in the Middle East, with approximately 40% of the working population holding a university degree. The problem lies in the lack of structured job opportunities. Employment is concentrated in traditional, saturated service sectors or shifts to the informal labor market, characterized by precarious employment (where over 48% of workers operate without contracts or protections). Consequently, universities are training students for a market that no longer exists, creating immense frustration and fueling the brain drain.
The contraction of SMEs and the banking freeze in Lebanon
Historically, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have been the true engine of youth employment. Today, they are being strangled by bank freezes and a lack of access to credit. This drastically limits their ability to hire. Without the release of capital, SMEs will continue to operate in survival mode.
Brain drain: a threat or an opportunity for the Lebanese economy?
It is estimated that over 350,000 people (primarily young and skilled) have left Lebanon since 2019. This mass emigration deprives the country of its most highly skilled human capital. It is a tragic loss. But paradoxically, this exodus creates gaps in certain specialized fields of expertise (particularly in healthcare and technology), offering rare opportunities for the few professionals who choose to stay or return to Lebanon. A genuine recovery in employment will inevitably depend on the effective implementation of banking restructuring and fiscal reforms. These are essential conditions for restoring investor confidence and unlocking international financing.
News from “resilient” sectors for employment in Lebanon
For you, the most effective strategy is not to wait for the “macroeconomic wave” effect, but to target niches that are already adapting to or directly benefiting from the new dollarized economy. Four sectors stand out for their resilience and recruitment potential, as they are export-oriented or geared towards foreign exchange earnings:
Tech and outsourcing: the dollar engine
The devaluation makes the Lebanese workforce highly competitive for foreign companies, creating a powerful dollar-denominated export service economy. This sector is a crucial driver for the future. Key skills to develop here include full-stack development, cybersecurity, fluency in professional English, and essential soft skills for remote work.
Niche and luxury tourism
This sector benefits from strong demand from the diaspora and high-income tourists, as it operates almost entirely in foreign currency. It demands a very high level of service. The professionals sought must be proficient in bilingual/trilingual hotel management, luxury hospitality, targeted digital marketing (particularly to the diaspora), and the management of international hygiene and safety standards.
Light industry and export-oriented agri-food
The incentive to produce locally and the need to export to generate revenue are driving this sector (think of brands like Liban Lait or Zaatar w Zeit, which are exported). There is high demand for candidates with expertise in logistics/supply chain, quality control (European standards), industrial engineering, and international B2B sales techniques.
Renewable energies and energy independence
Faced with the collapse of the public grid, solar and wind energy have become a necessity for all businesses and households. This sector is actively recruiting in installation and maintenance, electrical engineering, project management (Microgrids), and energy contract negotiation.
To position oneself with concrete recommendations for young professionals in Lebanon
The key for young Lebanese is simple: turn uncertainty into a competitive advantage by focusing on self-reliance and access to foreign currency income. It’s worth remembering that Lebanon’s population is structurally young. Approximately one-third (33%) of the population is under 25. This high proportion makes youth employment a critical issue for the country’s future.
Reforms and purchasing power: the consequences for current events in Lebanon
Post-crisis government reforms, including tax adjustments and bank restructuring, will have a direct impact on your financial environment. Plan ahead:
Bank restructuring and access to financing in Lebanon
Access to credit will remain limited in the short term. Focus on projects with low initial funding, prioritizing gradual self-financing or raising funds through the diaspora or international crowdfunding platforms. Your entrepreneurship should be service-oriented rather than capital-intensive.
2026 Budget: Pressure on prices in Lebanon
The spending side of the budget will be a major test. The gradual elimination of subsidies could indirectly impact prices, maintaining pressure on purchasing power. Your priority should be a job with an income indexed, even partially, to the dollar to maintain your purchasing power in the face of persistently high inflation (over 35% expected in 2026).
Maximizing employability: anti-crisis strategies in Lebanon
Monetizing foreign languages in Lebanon
Your languages are direct gateways to foreign markets and jobs in the dollarized service economy. Multilingualism (French, English, Arabic) is a major competitive advantage for outsourcing services.
Prioritize recognized certifications for Lebanese professionals
Faced with institutional stagnation, rapid and recognized certifications (Google Ads, Cisco, PMP, AWS, etc.) demonstrate immediately applicable skills that are valuable internationally. They act as passports to jobs in foreign currencies.
Adopting teleworking as the norm in Lebanon
Actively expand your network on LinkedIn, target remote job postings, and learn to work across different time zones. This is the most direct way to overcome the limitations of the local crisis.
Entrepreneurship targeted towards the Lebanese diaspora
Look at the unmet needs of the diaspora. Services that facilitate connectivity (money transfers, property management, remote assistance services) are booming and represent a stable dollar market. The macroeconomic recovery of 2026 will not be the job tsunami that is hoped for, but rather a gentle breeze that will primarily benefit those who have positioned themselves strategically. Your degree is important, but your adaptability and your ability to generate dollar value are even more so. Confidence in the future is built by being an active participant, not a passive observer. Are you ready to take your place in this new Lebanon? Sources
- World Bank (GDP and Inflation): Data extracted from the report Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2025: Turning the Tide? (Economic Monitor of Lebanon, Spring 2025: Reversing the trend?).
- Link to the report : https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/lebanon/publication/lebanon-economic-monitor-spring-2025-turning-the-tide
- Youth unemployment and the informal sector : Chiffres cités dans le rapport de la Direction Générale du Trésor français, Situation macroéconomique et financière du Liban (Février 2025), lui-même basé sur des estimations de l’ESCWA et de l’OIT.
- Page link : https://www.tresor.economie.gouv.fr/Pays/LB/cadrage-general
- Graduation Rate/Emigration : Données basées sur les études de l’ESCWA et de l’OIT sur le marché du travail libanais et les statistiques d’émigration post-2019 (notamment les estimations de Information International).
- General link to ESCWA publications : https://www.unescwa.org/publications
- Diaspora transfers : Données du FMI et de la Banque centrale du Liban (BDL) sur l’importance des remises de fonds pour le PIB.
- General link to IMF publications on Lebanon : https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/LBN
